Allen v Craig UFC Fight Night betting picks – November 18, 2023

UFC Fight Night at the Apex in Las Vegas is headlined by a middleweight bout between Brendan Allen and Paul Craig, a pair of submission specialists. Allen has carved out an impressive winning run, but Craig presents a unique set of physical challenges and recently produced an accomplished performance after dropping down a weight class. Read to see our fight preview and free UFC betting picks for Saturday’s main event.

Brendan Allen vs Paul Craig main event preview

Brendan Allen vs Paul Craig

Brendan Allen (22-5-0) has quietly built a five-fight win streak since suffering a KO loss to Chris Curtis in 2021 and is now ranked 10th in the middleweight division. Four of those wins have come via submission, and the 27-year-old might be among the best grapplers in the weight class. Allen boasts 13 professional MMA submission wins and will be keen to land some clean early strikes that set up takedown opportunities as the fight progresses.

Allen has flirted with the light heavyweight division but looks much more dangerous at 185 pounds. His wins over Andre Muniz and Bruno Silva left no doubt that Allen is pressing toward contender status. This matchup with a lower-ranked opponent is a dangerous endeavour with little upside, but it shows he is keen to stay active and build more winning momentum.

Paul Craig (17-6-1) was looking shaky at light heavyweight and suffered successive losses in mid-2022 and early 2023. After that disappointment, the Scot dropped to middleweight and found an instant return to form with a comprehensive win over Andre Muniz. Craig matches up favourably against Allen, standing an inch taller at 6’3″ and enjoying a one-inch reach advantage.

All of Craig’s professional wins have come before the final bell, and he has struggled with a lack of patience across his career. The 35-year-old might now be maturing in his approach and ready to fulfil his potential. Craig also has 13 submission victories on his record, so the first takedown during this contest may prove decisive from a mental standpoint.

Brendan Allen vs Paul Craig betting predictions

Despite their similar fighting styles, the top UFC betting sites have installed Allen as a short-priced favourite. It is hard to get excited about the skinny odds being offered, so we are tipping Craig at his generous quote.

The Scot has a level of intensity that might shock the prohibitive favourite. While Allen is the more calculating strategist, Craig will throw himself headlong into the heat of battle and might cause a boilover.

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