Sabalenka v Badosa betting picks | Australian Open Day 12 preview

See our best bets for Aryna Sabalenka’s clash with Paula Badosa in the Australian Open semi-finals this Thursday.

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Australian Open Day 12 Tennis Betting Odds & Game Info

When	Thursday, January 23, 2025
Where	Melbourne, Australia
Watch live	Australia: Nine, Stan Sports International: ESPN (US), TSN (CA), Eurosport (UK), SuperSport (ZA), Sony Sports (IN)

Day 12 of the 2025 Australian Open brings us two interesting semi-final matchups on the women’s side of the draw in Melbourne. The pick of those is Aryna Sabalenka’s clash with her close friend Paula Badosa, who downed third seed Coco Gauff on Tuesday to reach her maiden major semi-final. Let’s look at the best bets on offer for that contest.

Best bet: Over 19.5 games

Sabalenka and Badosa have played many times against each other and are also doubles partners, so this is a matchup where nothing will be hidden. That usually translates to close matches, and we think that is going to be the case on Thursday. Considering the form Badosa brings into this match, and Sabalenka’s recent vulnerabilities, this semi-final should go over 19.5 games.

Over 19.5 games

-166.67 @
Bovada

Next best: Over 2.5 sets

The over 2.5 sets market offers a similar proposition to our top pick, but with juicier odds at leading tennis betting sites. The way Badosa is playing at this Australian Open, she looks more than capable of taking a set from the defending champion. Sabalenka dropped her first set in 20 on Tuesday, and against a red-hot, familiar opponent, it would be no surprise to see another dropped in this semi-final.

Over 2.5 sets

+160 @
Bovada

Value bet: Sabalenka to win 2-1

While Badosa winning a set seems possible, winning the match seems unlikely for the Spaniard. The two have played a couple of matches where Sabalenka won 2-1 already, and with Badosa playing in her maiden Grand Slam semi-final, nerves could come into play. Throw in the problem-solving of Sabalenka, and a 2-1 scoreline in her favour is great value at $4 with top online bookmakers.