UFC 274 main card preview, best bets & top odds – May 7, 2022

A lightweight bout between Michael Chandler and Tony Ferguson will serve as the lead-in to the UFC 274 co-main event of Rose Namajunas vs Carla Esparza for the UFC Women’s Strawweight Championship. Here’s a look at that fight and the other two fights on the main card that will set the stage for the co-main event and the main event of Charles Oliveira vs Justin Gaethje this Saturday night.

Lightweight: Michael Chandler (-400) vs Tony Ferguson (+300)

Michael Chandler (22-7-0) has lot each of his last two fights to the two men fighting for the UFC Lightweight Championship in the main event. Prior to those two losses, Chandler was 6-1 over his previous seven bouts including a stretch of three straight knockout wins. Tony Ferguson (25-6-0) meanwhile has lost three straight fights to Gaethje, Oliveira and Beneil Dariush. Ferguson was 12-0-0 in his previous 12 UFC fights before this recent three-fight losing streak.

Ferguson’s last win came back in 2019 at UFC 238. It isn’t uncommon to see great MMA fighters fall off of a steep cliff towards the end of their careers, and that is unfortunately what has happened to Tony Ferguson. Yes, all three of his recent losses have come against talented opponents, but the fashion in which he lost them is concerning as he wasn’t competitive in any of those fights. Chandler by contrast had his moments in what was the Fight of the Night against Justin Gaethje at UFC 268.

It’s tempting to take a shot on Ferguson at these long odds and to hope for a magical return to form. But there isn’t anything about his recent bouts that indicates he’ll be much of a threat to Chandler in this one.

Light Heavyweight: Maurício Rua (+195) vs Ovince Saint Preux (-230)

Mauricio Rua (27-12-1) returns to the octagon for the first time since November of 2020 for this light heavyweight bout. Rua was knocked out in his last fight against Paul Craig, but prior to that he had compiled a 5-1-1 record over his previous seven fights. Ovince Saint Preux (25-18-0) meanwhile has been knocked out in each of his last two fights against Tanner Boser and Jamahal Hill. It’s easy enough to write of some of Saint Preux’s recent issues due to his attempt to move up to heavyweight, but he’s just 3-6 overall since the beginning of 2018.

Saint Preux is the more dangerous light heavyweight in this bout, and he also won’t be dealing with the ring rust that Rua will be. With that said, these odds still seem a bit lopsided; Rua is well past his prime, but it isn’t like Saint Preux is still in the middle of his. This looks like a decent spot to take a shot on the underdog in as an upset via knockout certainly isn’t out of the question.

Lightweight: Donald Cerrone (-165) vs Joe Lauzon (+145)

Donald Cerrone (36-16-0) has gone 0-5-1 over his last six fights, though the one draw against Niko Price was later overturned into a no-contest after Price tested positive for marijuana use. Joe Lauzon (28-15-0) won his last fight by knockout against Jonathan Pearce, though that victory came all the way back in October of 2019, and Lauzon was 2-5-0 in his previous five fights before that one. Dana White is doing everything he can to get the veteran Cerrone a slump-busting win with this favorably booked fight; we’ll bet on Cerrone to take advantage of the opportunity.

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